Impact of Energy-Efficiency Retrofits on Office Building Energy Use, Emissions, and Peak Demand under Future Climate Scenarios in U.S. Climate Zones
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.15377/2409-9821.2026.13.4Keywords:
Building energy retrofit, Building performance modeling, Office building energy simulation, Climate change impact on buildings, Building energy efficiency and emissions.Abstract
Evaluating energy efficiency measures (EEMs) under future climate conditions is critical for climate resilient design of buildings. However, the impact of EEMs on existing buildings under projected weather conditions has been insufficiently explored. This study evaluates the energy use, peak demands, and associated emissions of a prototypical medium office buildings with typical constructions properties from 1980 to 2004 across 16 U.S. climate zones, considering different EEMs under historical (TMY3) and future climate scenarios (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 for 2050 and 2080) to provide both location specific and broader insights. The different cases include models with envelope upgrades (wall, roof, floor, and window U-values, and solar heat gain coefficient [SHGC]), cooling coefficient of performance (COP), lighting power density (LPD), energy recovery ventilation (ERV), and combined retrofit measures, where upgrades followed ASHRAE 189.1-2020 recommendations. Results showed that the energy use and emissions under projected weather conditions increased in very hot regions and decreased in very cold regions, particularly under SSP5-8.5, reducing the gap between these extreme conditions. LPD, cooling COP, and window upgrades showed highest energy savings. LPD yielded the largest savings among individual measures, except in very cold and subarctic zones, where window retrofits outperformed. Results revealed increased stress on electric grids in regions with significant cooling loads where energy use outpaces energy savings under future scenarios. Additionally, the analysis showed that clean energy production in extreme cooling- or heating-dominated regions require attention, as the high electricity-related emissions in these regions coincide with high energy loads, amplifying the associated environmental impacts.
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