500-Year Records Demonstrating a Sharp Increase in Intensities of Three Natural Hazards at Multiple Spatiotemporal Scales in China
Abstract - 115
PDF

Keywords

China
Disasters
500 years
Natural hazards
Spatial-temporal pattern

How to Cite

1.
Wang Z, Yuan J, Peng Y, Wang C, Li G. 500-Year Records Demonstrating a Sharp Increase in Intensities of Three Natural Hazards at Multiple Spatiotemporal Scales in China. Glob. Environ. Eng. [Internet]. 2023 Dec. 28 [cited 2024 Jul. 16];10:18-32. Available from: https://avantipublishers.com/index.php/tgevnie/article/view/1473

Abstract

China has experienced frequent natural disasters, including droughts, floods, and heavy snowfall. This study discusses the temporal-spatial patterns in the country since 1500. The intensity of drought in Henan and Inner Mongolia was higher than that in Guizhou and Qinghai, while little difference in flood intensity was observed among these provinces. The intensity of snow disasters in Qinghai was much higher. Except for the slightly decreasing drought trend in Henan, the three natural disasters showed a significant increase over time. Drought disasters in Guizhou, Henan, and Qinghai showed few seasonal differences, whereas those in Inner Mongolia mostly occurred in winter and spring. Floods were concentrated during the summer, while snow disasters occurred mainly during winter and spring. According to the Mann–Kendall (M–K) test, the seasonal differences in disaster trends in Guizhou, Henan, and Qinghai were unclear and similar to the overall trend. However, the disaster trends in Inner Mongolia showed seasonal differences. The spatial distribution of natural disasters in Guizhou and Henan were similar, and their changing trends were extremely scattered, while in Inner Mongolia and Qinghai, they were clustered. The spatial distribution of disaster intensity had few seasonal differences and was similar to the overall distribution. However, when considering the spatial distribution of disaster trends by season, seasonal differences were evident. This study has provided an earlier signal on how to prevent and mitigate natural disasters based on 500 years' tempo-spatial pattern, and the measures on how to improve the management practices of natural hazards under climate change were also suggested.

https://doi.org/10.15377/2410-3624.2023.10.3
PDF

References

Easterling DR, Meehl GA, Parmesan C, Changnon SA, Karl TR, Mearns LO. Climate extremes: observations, modeling, and impacts. Science (1979) 2000; 289: 2068-74. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.289.5487.2068

Xu W, Ma L, Ma M, Zhang H, Yuan W. Spatial–temporal variability of snow cover and depth in the qinghai–tibetan plateau. J Climate. 2017; 30: 1521–33. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0732.1

Du X, Jin X, Yang X, Yang X, Xiang X, Zhou Y. Spatial-temporal pattern changes of main agriculture natural disasters in China during 1990–2011. J Geogr Sci. 2015; 25: 387-98. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11442-015-1175-x

McMichael AJ, Woodruff RE, Hales S. Climate change and human health: present and future risks. The Lancet. 2006; 367: 859-69. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(06)68079-3

Morrissey SA, Reser JP. Natural disasters, climate change and mental health considerations for rural Australia. Aust J Rural Health. 2007; 15: 120-5. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1440-1584.2007.00865.x

Fengjin X, Ziniu X. Characteristics of tropical cyclones in China and their impacts analysis. Natural Hazards. 2010; 54: 827–37. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-010-9508-7

Kim S, Shin Y, Kim H, Pak H, Ha J. Impacts of typhoon and heavy rain disasters on mortality and infectious diarrhea hospitalization in South Korea. Int J Environ Health Res. 2013; 23: 365-76. https://doi.org/10.1080/09603123.2012.733940

Ni J, Sun L, Li T, Huang Z, Borthwick AGL. Assessment of flooding impacts in terms of sustainability in mainland China. J Environ Manage. 2010; 91: 1930-42. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2010.02.010

Liu J, Diamond J. China’s environment in a globalizing world. Nature. 2005; 435: 1179-86. https://doi.org/10.1038/4351179a

Huang J, Xue Y, Sun S, Zhang J. Spatial and temporal variability of drought during 1960–2012 in Inner Mongolia, north China. Quat Int. 2015; 355: 134-44. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quaint.2014.10.036

Wang A, Lettenmaier DP, Sheffield J. Soil Moisture Drought in China, 1950–2006. J Clim. 2011; 24: 3257-71. https://doi.org/10.1175/2011JCLI3733.1

Su B, Kundzewicz ZW, Jiang T. Simulation of extreme precipitation over the Yangtze River Basin using Wakeby distribution. Theor Appl Climatol. 2009; 96: 209-19. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-008-0025-5

Zhai J, Su B, Krysanova V, Vetter T, Gao C, Jiang T. Spatial variation and trends in PDSI and SPI indices and their relation to streamflow in 10 large regions of China. J Climate. 2010; 23: 649-63. https://doi.org/10.1175/2009JCLI2968.1

FAO. Report of FAO-CRIDA Expert Group Consultation on Farming System and Best Practices for Drought-Prone Areas of Asia and the Pacific Region. Food and Agricultural Organization of United Nations; Central Research Institute for Dryland Agriculture: Hyderabad, India, 2002.

Von Buttlar J, Zscheischler J, Rammig A, Sippel S, Mahecha MD. Impacts of droughts and extreme-temperature events on gross primary production and ecosystem respiration: A systematic assessment across ecosystems and climate zones. Biogeosciences. 2018; 15: 1293–1318. https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-1293-2018

World Bank. India, Financing Rapid Onset Natura Disaster Losses in India: A Risk Management Approach. Washington, DC: 2003.

Li M, Li S, Li Y. Studies on drought in the past 50 years in China. Chin J Agrometeorol. 2003; 24: 8-11.

Li Y, Ye W, Wang M, Yan X. Climate change and drought: a risk assessment of crop-yield impacts. Clim Res. 2009; 39: 31-46. https://doi.org/10.3354/cr00797

Liu Z. Comprehensive analysis of drought disasters in China. Disaster Adv. 2012: 1275–80.

Qiu H, Cao M, Hao J, Wang Y, Wang Y. Relationship between frequency and magnitude of drought damage in China. Sci Geogr Sin. 2013; 33: 576–80.

Long D, Shen Y, Sun A, Hong Y, Longuevergne L, Yang Y, et al. Drought and flood monitoring for a large karst plateau in Southwest China using extended GRACE data. Remote Sens Environ. 2014; 155: 145–60. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rse.2014.08.006

Jongman B, Hochrainer-Stigler S, Feyen L, Aerts JCJH, Mechler R, Botzen WJW, et al. Increasing stress on disaster-risk finance due to large floods. Nat Clim Chang. 2014; 4: 264–8. https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2124

Forzieri G, Feyen L, Russo S, Vousdoukas M, Alfieri L, Outten S, et al. Multi-hazard assessment in Europe under climate change. Clim Change. 2016; 137: 105–19. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-016-1661-x

Paprotny D, Morales-Nápoles O. Estimating extreme river discharges in Europe through a Bayesian network. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci. 2017; 21: 2615–36. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-2615-2017

Vousdoukas MI, Mentaschi L, Voukouvalas E, Verlaan M, Feyen L. Extreme sea levels on the rise along Europe’s coasts. Earths Future. 2017; 5: 304–23. https://doi.org/10.1002/2016EF000505

Smith A, Bates PD, Wing O, Sampson C, Quinn N, Neal J. New estimates of flood exposure in developing countries using high-resolution population data. Nat Commun. 2019; 10: Article number: 1814. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-019-09282-y

Wang R, Jiang T, Gao J, Chen J. Yangtze River flood: Causes and analysis. J Nat Disasters. 1999; 8: 16-20.

Huicong J, Donghua P. On the spatial and temporal patterns of flood and drought hazards of China. Disaster Adva. 2013; 6: 12–8.

Koenig U, Abegg B. Impacts of climate change on winter tourism in the swiss alps. J Sustain Tour. 1997; 5: 46-58. https://doi.org/10.1080/09669589708667275

Keller F, Goyette S, Beniston M. Sensitivity analysis of snow cover to climate change scenarios and their impact on plant habitats in alpine terrain. Clim Change. 2005; 72: 299-319. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-005-5360-2

Geis J, Strobel K, Liel A. Snow-induced building failures. J Perform Constr Fac. 2012;26:377–88. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)CF.1943-5509.0000222

Taylor DA. A survey of snow loads on the roofs of arena-type buildings in Canada. Can J Civil Eng. 1979; 6: 85–96. https://doi.org/10.1139/l79-010

Zhang J. Risk assessment of drought disaster in the maize-growing region of Songliao Plain, China. Agr Ecosyst Environ. 2004; 102: 133–53. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agee.2003.08.003

Qin Z, Tang H, Li W, Zhang H, Zhao S, Wang Q. Modelling impact of agro-drought on grain production in China. Int J Disast Risk Reduct. 2014; 7: 109-21. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2013.09.002

Zhou Y, Li N, Wu W, Wu J, Gu X, Ji Z. Exploring the characteristics of major natural disasters in China and their impacts during the past decades. Nat Hazards. 2013; 69: 829-43. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-013-0738-3

Peng Y, Long S, Ma J, Song J, Liu Z. Temporal-spatial variability in correlations of drought and flood during recent 500 years in Inner Mongolia, China. Science of The Total Environment. 2018; 633: 484-91. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.03.200

Peng Y, Song J, Cui T, Cheng X. Temporal–spatial variability of atmospheric and hydrological natural disasters during recent 500 years in Inner Mongolia, China. Natural Hazards. 2017; 89: 441–56. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-017-2973-5

Seager R, Ting M, Held I, Kushnir Y, Velez J. Model projections of an imminent transition to a more arid climate in southwestern North America. Science (1979). 2007; 316: 1181–4. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1139601

Dai A. Drought under global warming: a review. WIREs Climate Change. 2011; 2: 45-65. https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.81

Spinoni J, Naumann G, Carrao H, Barbosa P, Vogt J. World drought frequency, duration, and severity for 1951-2010. Int J Climatol. 2014; 34: 2792-804. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.3875

Güneralp B, Güneralp İ, Liu Y. Changing global patterns of urban exposure to flood and drought hazards. Global Environ Chang. 2015; 31: 217-25. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2015.01.002

Xu J, Shi Y, Gao X, Giorgi F. Projected changes in climate extremes over China in the 21st century from a high resolution regional climate model (RegCM3). Chinese Sci Bull. 2013; 58: 1443–52. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11434-012-5548-6

Ji Z, Kang S. Evaluation of extreme climate events using a regional climate model for China. Int J Climatol. 2015; 35: 888-902. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.4024

Alfieri L, Burek P, Feyen L, Forzieri G. Global warming increases the frequency of river floods in Europe. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci. 2015; 19: 2247–60. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-2247-2015

Ballesteros-Cánovas JA, Trappmann D, Madrigal-González J, Eckert N, Stoffel M. Climate warming enhances snow avalanche risk in the Western Himalayas. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA. 2018; 115: 3410–5. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1716913115

Bernard E, Naveau P, Vrac M, Mestre O. Clustering of maxima: Spatial dependencies among heavy rainfall in France. J Clim. 2013; 26: 7929–37. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00836.1

Creative Commons License

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.

Copyright (c) 2022 Zhaohua Wang, Jingxiang Yuan, Yu Peng, Chengru Wang , Guoying Li