A Survey on Rainfall Prediction and Anomalies using Time Series Models in Different Climates
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.15377/2409-9813.2017.04.01.3Keywords:
Iran, precipitation, water, ARIMA, autoregressive.Abstract
In this study, using 50 years of rainfall data and ARIMA model, critical areas of Iran were determined. For this purpose, annual rainfall data of 112 different synoptic stations in Iran were gathered. To summarize, it could be concluded that: ARIMA model was an appropriate tool to forecast annual rainfall. According to obtained results from relative error, five stations include IRANSHAHR, SIRJAN, NAEIN, ZAHEDAN, and KISH, were in critical condition. At 45 stations accrued rainfalls with amounts of less than half of average in the 50-year period. Therefore, in these 45 areas, chance of drought is more than other areas of Iran.Downloads
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